A Strategic Framework for Default Resolution

GRACE applies expected value modeling, borrower simulation, and recovery calculus to every post-default decision—transforming uncertainty into measurable, auditable outcomes.

Core System Components

GRACE is built on a dual-model architecture that provides both operational clarity and strategic foresight.

Deterministic Engine

Calculates a precise, auditable financial comparison between immediate repossession and a structured workout.

Probabilistic Simulator

Runs thousands of borrower outcome simulations to forecast the full spectrum of potential gains and losses.

Bayesian Risk Adjustment

Dynamically updates the borrower's risk profile based on real-time performance, adapting predictions as new data arrives.

Strategic Fallback Logic

Integrates liquidation costs and recovery rates into every scenario, ensuring a realistic baseline for all decisions.

The Shift to Data-Driven Recovery

Before GRACE: Heuristic-Based

  • Decisions based on gut feel & static rules
  • Focus on reactive loss mitigation
  • Inconsistent, unpredictable outcomes
  • High potential for undetected portfolio drag

After GRACE: Value-Optimized

  • Statistical decision trees & EV models
  • Proactive optimization of recovery value
  • Consistent, auditable decision framework
  • Higher portfolio-level Expected Value

How GRACE Empowers Your Decision

A disciplined process that transforms raw data into strategic clarity.

1

Default Trigger & Data Ingestion

A default or out-of-trust event triggers the analysis. GRACE ingests critical loan data: total balance, OOT value, collateral type, and historical recovery rates.

2

Dual Model Analysis

The system runs two parallel analyses. The Deterministic Engine calculates the exact financial outcomes of Plan A vs. Plan B, while the Probabilistic Simulator models thousands of potential futures.

3

Quantified Outcome Visualization

GRACE provides a complete picture of the decision. It presents the precise dollar-value "GRACE Advantage" alongside a full probability distribution of all potential workout results.

4

Informed Lender Decision

Armed with a complete financial and risk analysis, the lender makes a fully informed, auditable, and strategically sound decision, moving from opinion to quantifiable fact.

5

Execution & Real-Time Monitoring

The chosen path is executed. If a workout (Plan B) is selected, GRACE continues to track borrower performance against the model's projections in real time, ensuring continued alignment.

See the Framework in Action

Explore real-world scenarios where GRACE transforms complex default situations into profitable recovery strategies.

Explore Use Cases